A reader wrote in a bit earlier to point out how amazing it is that Barack Obama has gotten back on top of the campaign so quickly after the GOP convention, and what a bad position it puts McCain in:
Hey -- you need to update your polling post to reflect today's Hotline tracker -- you have yesterday's number. [Note from Jed: Now fixed.] Also, I think its worth to take a step back and contemplate how remarkable the shift back to Obama is. Gallup noted after the GOP convention as follows (emphasis mine):
"While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 -- the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term.
"Thus, if Obama regains the lead over the next month, he will be bucking the historical trend. Admittedly, most of the elections since 1964 were not as competitive as this year's election has been, but even in closely contested election years of 1988 (George H.W. Bush led by just four points after the GOP convention that year), 2000, and 2004 the post-conventions leader usually held that position one month later. However, for the most part past conventions were completed much earlier than this year's late August and early September conventions, and this year the first debate between the presidential candidates will take place just three weeks after the last convention. That could give Obama an opportunity to change the race in his favor if he hasn't done so before then."
I don't want to get ahead of things, but Obama's apparently successful wresting of momentum away from McCain is remarkable. Not sure if it's a natural fading of McCain's convention bounce, Palin-fatigue, the re-emergence of the economy as the central issue, Obama's success in getting the press to focus on the falsehoods being propogated by McCain or Obama's successful messaging on the economy (or some combination thereof), but the current state of play puts McCain in a desparate position -- sort of like Kerry's position in early September.
© Jed Lewison