This video is just wrong on absolutely every level but it is so damn funny I couldn't resist posting it.

YouTube link

::: :::

Rick Davis on Friday:

"Our own data has us dead even in the state of Iowa," he said.

New poll of Iowa from Selzer & Co., conducted Oct 28-31:

• Barack Obama: 54%
• John McCain: 37%

Maybe what Baghdad Rick meant to say was "Our own data has us dead, even in the state of Iowa." That would have made more sense.

As you probably know, Dick Cheney dealt perhaps the final blow to John McCain's campaign earlier today by offering up his endorsement of the McCain-Palin ticket. If you happened to be a FOX News viewer, however, you'd have been lucky to find out. As of 6:35PM Pacific today:

• FOX: 8 mentions of Cheney
• CNN: 34 mentions
• MSNBC: 36 mentions

Maybe that's Fair & Balanced™. But it's not accurate and honest.

^{These numbers were generated using a Snapstream Enterprise TV server.}

Andrew Sullivan notes another powerful voice (Marty Peretz) vouching for Rashid Khalidi against the vile smears spewed by John McCain.

McCain's assault on Khalidi, an innocent man who has nothing to do with this election, has clearly been his most dishonorable act of the campaign.

I'm not a lawyer, but I suspect Khalidi could file a defamation or libel suit against McCain, for these smears were both false and malicious. For the sake of our democracy, I hope Khalidi does do just that. A legal victory would be a profound setback against McCain's neo-McCarthyism.

Here's a perfect everyday example of just how much the pendulum of power is shifting in this country. Brad Blakeman, one of those GOP strategists you see on teevee, argues that an Obama victory would effectively result in a Democratic dictatorship.

Blakeman, whose counterpart was Ari Melber of The Nation, quickly realized he'd just stepped in it, and begged for mercy:

I'm kidding you Ari, take it easy. Don't blog it after we're done, get your people all in a bean about it.

To understand why Blakeman was begging for mercy, you need to know that the last time he and Melber squared off, Melber so thoroughly destroyed him that the YouTube clip of their encounter received over 150,000 views and subjected Blakeman to widespread mocking throughout the blogosphere.

So what we are seeing in this clip below is a Republican who realizes that conservatives no longer have exclusive dominance over the contours of our public discourse. There's a new seat at the table -- and we're the ones sitting in it.

YouTube link

Here's a composite look at the six major tracking polls. (Both Gallup models report the same numbers today, so there's no need for two charts. Edit: This chart users Gallup expanded data for earlier days. If I'd used Gallup traditional data, the chart would look even better for Obama.)

As you can see on the graphic on the home page, Obama's net lead has either stayed the same or grown in the last few days, depending on whether you're using the Gallup traditional or Gallup expanded numbers.

McCain meets Anna Nicole Smith, via Ben Smith. As Genevieve said in the comments earlier today, this is just plain weird.

YouTube link

In his prepared remarks for Pueblo, Colorado, Barack Obama saluted John McCain for earning the support of Dick Cheney:

President Bush is sitting out the last few days before the election. But earlier today, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location and hit the campaign trail. He said that he is, and I quote, "delighted to support John McCain."

I'd like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy. Senator McCain had to vote 90 percent of the time with George Bush and Dick Cheney to get it. He served as Washington's biggest cheerleader for going to war in Iraq, and supports economic policies that are no different from the last eight years. So Senator McCain worked hard to get Dick Cheney's support.

But here's my question for you, Colorado: do you think Dick Cheney is delighted to support John McCain because he thinks John McCain's going to bring change? Do you think John McCain and Dick Cheney have been talking about how to shake things up, and get rid of the lobbyists and the old boys club in Washington?

Barack Obama in Henderson, NV (Henderson is right next to Vegas and is the second-largest city in the state):

YouTube link

The least popular vice president in history endorses John McCain, his choice to succeed the least popular president in history.

YouTube link

Thanks to an incredibly creative video editing job, Sarah Palin and John McCain have now conducted their very first debate.

YouTube link

::: :::

If you read memos from Rick Davis, or if you consume news reports regurgitating his spin from FOX News or Matt Drudge, you might get the sense that in the last few days, John McCain has finally managed to make some headway against Barack Obama.

But that's just not true. John McCain hasn't gained any ground at all, at least not if you look at the full range of publicly available polling data. In fact, he may very well have lost a little ground over the past couple of days.

Here's a couple of different looks at tracking polls taken over the last five days. Each chart shows a weighted average of the six tracking polls that use three-day samples.

The first chart includes data from Gallup's expanded voter model, which assumes a fairly high turnout. As you can see, McCain may have made some slight headway at the beginning of the week, but by week's end the race was pretty much where it started when the week began.

Not surprisingly, Matt the Drudge is pushing the story about a distant aunt of Barack Obama who is living the U.S. despite the rejection of her asylum request. No doubt FOX will soon flog the living daylights out of it too.

I'm not worried about it though, because Barack Obama has an easy response to any political attacks on this.

First, he can make it clear that he does not expect his aunt to receive any special favors as she appeals the decision.

Second, he can underscore the fact that he was neither aware of her status, nor did he have anything to do with it.

And finally, he can ask the media to respect the his aunt's privacy, not because she's a member of his extended family, but because she is a private individual who has nothing to do with this presidential campaign.

She never asked to be in the spotlight, and it's clear her case has made its way towards the public eye thanks solely to the efforts of anti-Obama political operatives working both inside and outside government.

For these operatives to suddenly try to thrust this woman's situation into the middle of a presidential campaign goes against every principle that this country stands for. John McCain and his campaign should summon the decency to leave this woman alone. It's the American thing to do.

Forgive the slightly blue humor, but Matt Drudge is to McCain's poll numbers what herbal Viagra substitutes are are to men with ED.

Amazingly, Drudge has still got customers: K-Lo couldn't be more pleased that he thinks a one-day subsample of a Zogby polls means McCain will win.

I've got some advice for K-Lo: listen to Nate Silver. He'll save you from the embrassment of being a Drudge disciple.

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) speaks his mind about Palin and the McCain campaign's handling of her candidacy. Ensign says that "certainly" Biden is "much more qualified" than Palin, though he does offer the caveat that he also believes McCain is more qualified than Obama. Here's video:

YouTube link

TPM has been doing a great job of tracking the tracking polls, and as you can see from this chart, both candidates have crept up a bit -- McCain a tiny bit moreso than Obama -- but not much has changed. Most importantly, Barack Obama remains over 50%, and John McCain can't quite crack 45%.

I just joined the 22+ million Americans who have already cast their ballots in this presidential election, and it feels damn good.

Turnout was intense at my early voting location in southwest Las Vegas. When I arrived, there were two lines of seventy-five to one hundred people each, and when I left, the lines were at least as long. It was the last day of early voting here, but on the other hand it was also Friday night and it was Halloween.

As for demographics, it was a racially and ethnically diverse crowd, and I'd estimate that most people were under the age of sixty.

One interesting thing to note: I overheard the phone conversation of the woman on line ahead of me. I couldn't tell who she was voting for, but she was telling the story of a guy who had just been laid off his job after 31 years. I didn't catch many details other than that, but it was a reminder of what this election is really about, at least for me: making our economy work for all Americans, not just a select few.

The newest video from Humanitainment, the makers of Baracky. Hilarious:

YouTube link

Imagine if you were listening to panel of baseball analysts debate whether the pitcher should throw a curveball or a slider in a hypothetical scenario where the count on the on the batter was 5 balls and 4 strikes.

That's what it's like listening to a lot of these cable pundits debating the current state of the campaign.

I cannot wait until I don't need to see these guys again on a daily basis.

A quick survey of the three polling sites I frequent:

• FiveThirtyEight.com projection: Obama 346.5, McCain 191.5
• Pollster.com snapshot: Obama 311, McCain 142, 85 tossup
• Princeton meta-analysis snapshot: Obama 360, McCain 178

Good news for McCain!

Update (3:35PM): LBJ drew a crowd of 125,000, so Obama's crowd is not the largest in state's history -- just in recent state history.

Original post: Des Moines police estimate Obama's crowd today was 25,000 -- more than the 15,000 John Kerry drew in 2004, and more than the 10,000 Sarah Palin drew about one week ago.

Based on those comparison numbers, The Iowa Independent speculates that it is the largest political crowd in the state's history.

Over at 538, Sean Quinn takes a look at McCain's anemic ground game.

Without FOX, Bush never would have won re-election, and without FOX, John McCain would probably be losing by twenty points.

But that doesn't mean FOX has been a good thing for the Republican Party, at least not in the long term.

The problem with having such a successful propaganda organization is that it allowed the GOP to become utterly complacent about actually doing anything remotely resembling an effective job of governing.

In that sense, FOX became something of a crutch for them. It kept them walking for a few years, but sooner or later, things were bound to catch up with them. And now that they are paying the price for neglecting their core responsibilities, things are going to be ugly for the Republican Party for quite some time.

It seems everybody is jumping aboard the Obama express. The latest: Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan's former chief of staff offered his endorsement this morning.

After endorsing Obama, Duberstein appeared on MSNBC, where he launched into a full-fledged assault on John McCain's judgment for selecting Sarah Palin. It was a sight to behold, not just for the denunciation of John McCain, but also for the sheer joy of watching the collapse of the GOP coalition before our very eyes:

YouTube link

Markos reports incredible numbers from the new Daily Kos poll in Arizona:

Here's one of the first videos from a series of clips of McCain's oddest moments on the campaign trail that I'll be posting on YouTube (and of course both here and Daily Kos) over the next few days, just to try to keep things lighthearted as we head down the final stretch.

This particular clip is of a moment from late May in which McCain is unable to find Bob Cashell, the Mayor of Reno, Nevada, at a town hall event in the city. I had a bit of fun with it, juxtaposing McCain's troubles finding Bob with his troubles finding Joe The No Show.

Anyway, it's totally silly, but there's nothing wrong with having a little fun now that there is less than four full days to go before election day voting begins.

YouTube link

Nico Pitney and Sam Stein report that former Secretary of State Larry Eagleburger, one of John McCain's key foreign policy surrogates, now says Sarah Palin isn't ready to take over the presidency should anything happen to McCain, adding that he would "of course not" be comfortable with her as president.

Eagleburger offered his remarks during an interview on NPR yesterday. Presumably McCain will throw Eagleburger under the bus, but it's worth remembering that just last Sunday McCain was proudly touting Eagleburger's support, along with that of four other Republican secretaries of state. Problem is, he couldn't quite remember one of their names, leading to a hilarious sequence of McCain confusion on live television.

This is a remarkable editorial coming from the WaPo:

To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable -- especially during a campaign in which Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults. To further argue that the Times, which obtained the tape from a source in exchange for a promise not to publicly release it, is trying to hide something is simply ludicrous, as Mr. McCain surely knows.

Which reminds us: We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that "I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over." That's good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign's increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days.

Earlier, I posted the first half of Barack Obama's interview with Rachel Maddow; here's the second half, including the discussion on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Turns out that McCain got so flustered by Joe's no show that he flubbed an attack line on Obama, and instead of trying to correct himself, he simply said -- in an irritated voice -- "never mind."

These are the wheels coming off, my friends!

YouTube link

It looks like it's actually going to be a tough interview -- from the left. You don't see that very often.

Update (7:37PM): Here's part one of the interview (starts about 3:23 into the clip):

According to the new NYT poll, three in five voters think Palin is not qualified to be president:

Increasingly, Poll Shows Palin Hurting McCain's Chances

A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said that Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up 9 percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said that the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favored Senator Barack Obama.

I am not at all disturbed by Barack Obama's alleged relationship with Rashidi Khalidi, nor am I disturbed by Khalidi himself, and I say this as a supporter of Israel, as a Jew, and as an American.

I am, however, terribly disturbed by the McCain campaign's systematic assault on this man who not only has played no voluntary role in this campaign, but also owes what little prominence he does have at least in part to John McCain, who generously funded his organization in the 1990s.

Obviously, the reason this man is being targeted for his name and nothing more. I was watching a Palin rally yesterday in which she launched an attack on Khalidi, in the process so badly mangling his name that it was hardly recognizable, though it was clearly foreign-sounding.

Before she had finished mispronouncing it, however, the crowd was already booing. They had no idea who this man was. All they knew is that they didn't like the way his name sounded.

That's not the America we want to live in. That's McCarthyism. That's what McCain and Palin now represent, and on Tuesday, we bid them farewell.

It will be a good riddance.

Here's a hilarious web video from Obama-land on robocalls...urging those of us who support him to get on the phone and make some calls of our own!

Not only did 26.3 million Americans watch Barack Obama's primetime special yesterday, but a record number of viewers -- 3.6 million -- tuned into his interview on The Daily Show.

This new Obama web video powerfully summarizes the 2008 campaign, from start to finish, in Obama's own words, ending with the most important reminder of all: to seize this moment, we must vote.

This AP story is the entire McCain-Palin campaign in a nutshell:

Fact Check: Palin's Alaska spreads its wealth

Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin summon antidemocratic images of a communist state to attack Democrat Barack Obama's tax plan and his comment about spreading the wealth around. But in her home state, Palin embraces Alaska's own version of doing just that.

Here's how it breaks down:

1. McCain gets desperate and decides he needs a new attack
2. Drudge and FOX amplify McCain's attack as much as possible, no matter how truthful it is
3. After a short period of time, not only is McCain's attack discredited as false, but it turns out that McCain or his running mate supported the very thing they had been attackign Obama for

In the end, it's the Republican Party that is left holding the bag, because John McCain leaves behind a party that has not only been devastated by Bush, but also now stands for nothing but attacking Barack Obama.

McCain will almost certainly do better than Barry Goldwater at the polls on Tuesday, but his campaign is a far bigger disaster for the GOP than Goldwater ever was.

Biden campaigns in Arnold, Missouri earlier today:

YouTube link

At Penn State University, Sarah Palin refuses to meet with the university's president because he's "a big Democrat." Where'd the maverick go?

Last night, Larry King wanted to know whether John McCain has total confidence that Sarah Palin could take over if he were ever unavailable during an attack on the United States.

YouTube link

A sampling:

• McCain's onto a new line of attack against Obama, this time trying to portray Obama as a tool of the oil industry. Please, I hope he does this every day until election day.
• Ben Smith says the new NYT/CBS poll will show Obama with a double-digit lead.
• In Iowa, they are kicking out audience members who 'look like' Obama supporters
• The McCain side of the campaign is trying to scapegoat Palin
• Palin's 2012 thoughts are creating a Republican rift
• McCain's dismissive "blah, blah, blah" about nuclear power safety earned him a rebuke from the Las Vegas Sun. (Because of Yucca Mountain, nuclear safety is a big deal here in Vegas.)

Now this is hilarious: John McCain calls on Joe The Plumber to stand up and be recognized...but Joe's nowhere to be found, and it confuses the hell out of McCain.

Joe must have been off trying to get a record deal or something...

h/t: Joe Sudbay of AMERICAblog

Update (9:49AM): MSNBC reports that two-thirds of the crowd were bused in school students:

A local school district official confirmed after the event that of the 6,000 people estimated by the fire marshal to be in attendance this morning, more than 4,000 were bused in from schools in the area. The entire 2,500-student Defiance School District was in attendance, the official said, in addition to at least three other schools from neighboring districts, one of which sent 14 buses.

It's been a great honor blogging here at TJR over the past few months, and now that we've reached that point in the election where the rubber meets the road, I just have one thing to say to you folks. Yes, just one single solitary damn thing to say. And I mean it with all sincerity:

We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.

YouTube link

So Shephard Smith interviews Joe Wurzelbacher (hereafter "Wurz") for a bit over five minutes about why Wurz thinks Obama's election would mean the "death of Isreal." During the interview, Smith challenges Wurz, saying that Obama has repeatedly stated his position that the U.S. would be a friend of Israel, and suddenly people think "Shep" is some kind of a hero because he stood up to Wurz's smears.

Nonsense. By putting Wurz on his show and spending five minutes debating Wurz's absurd smear, Shep was in fact spreading the smear. You don't fight smears like that by giving the smear a platform, and then saying you don't agree with the smear. You fight smears by quashing them.

Here's an analogy: let's say that Keith Olbermann put someone one the air who made the case that if elected, John McCain would -- without provocation -- launch a nuclear strike against Iran. Now even if Olbermann gently suggested the person was making  baseless accusation, can you imagine a single person on the right being happy with Olbermann?

Here's the bottom-line: there are times when citing FOX is useful, but those times are almost exclusively limited to when FOX either contradicts itself, or reveals serious infighting amongst conservatives. Virtually every single time they are talking about someone on the left, they are up to no good.

The parallels are freaky. The Onion, May 29, 1993:

NRSC Chairman John Ensign of Nevada not only essentially concedes defeat at the presidential level, but also blames voters for the GOP's failures, saying that they have "mistakenly" blamed Bush for the nation's economic woes. The real culprits, according to Ensign? Congressional Democrats and their "overregulation."

Just another Republican defending the party of denial.

YouTube link

Special live edition of Countdown, airing now.

I just would have been beside myself with agony if Tampa Bay had managed to win a world series championship before the Seattle Mariners.

I'm on the west coast and won't be able to see it for another 3 hours.

Hey, it's on YouTube -- awesome! (And it's on MSNBC too.)

John McCain and Sarah Palin are basing their entire campaign on a series of nasty, false personal attacks on Barack Obama. Their bet is that Americans are a fearful, frightened bunch who won't be willing to vote for a new direction. But their assumptions are wrong; their bet is going to fail.

And when it does fail, it will leave the Republican Party with nothing. John McCain will almost certainly outperform Barry Goldwater in this election, yet he will leave his party in far worse shape than did Goldwater. At least Goldwater left his party with a devoted base of conservative activists, energized by his commitment to conservative ideology.

McCain, meanwhile, has simultaneously stood for nothing and for everything. He has taken a Republican brand that had been shattered by George W. Bush and rendered it even more meaningless. And the fact that almost nobody in his party seems to understand the devastation that they are inflicting on themselves is a strong indication that they will be in the political wilderness for some years to come.

ABC News (emphasis mine):

Gov. Sarah Palin suggested that if the Republican ticket is defeated on Tuesday she expects to be a player in the next election four years from now, saying "I'm not doing this for naught."

So Sarah Palin delivered a joke of a speech on energy policy today. It was basically a non-event, but there was some humor to come from the difference between the speech as prepared for delivery and the speech that she actually delivered.

Over at ThinkProgress's Wonk Room, Brad Johnson went through the entire speech and identified the portions that Palin ad libbed, yielding gems like this, swapping out "McCain administration" for "our administration":

And In a McCain our administration, we wi'll authorize and support new exploration and production of America's own oil and gas reserves -- because we cannot outsource the solution to America's energy problem.

And In a McCainour administration, we will set this nation on a course to build 45 new nucular reactors by the year 2030.

That's right. Even Sarah Palin doesn't like saying "McCain."

You can read the full text here, but beware, it's a disturbing journey to go insider her mind!

(Ozier Muhammad/NYT)

Up until the latter part of the summer, Digg was a pretty good way to get the word out about videos and campaign-related information. Then, McCain supporters got organized and started burying content. Now, I'd say that 4 out of 5 -- if not more -- things that would be appreciated by the Digg community as a whole get buried before making it to the front page.

And Bill O'Reilly (presumably jokingly) wants Burton arrested for being mean to her.

YouTube link

Joe may yet get his income over $250K: he's looking to sign a recording contract for a country music album.

From Obama's rain-soaked rally in Chester, PA (Doug Mills, NYT):

Barack Obama mocks McCain's 'socialism' attacks:: "Next thing you you know, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten!"

Transcript:

That's why he's spending these last few days calling me every name in the book. I'm sorry to see my opponent sink so low. Lately, he's called me a socialist for wanting to roll back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans so we can finally give tax relief to the middle class. By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten.

If you're sick and tired of John McCain's non-stop stream of lies about Barack Obama's tax plan, this video can help you put an end to it. Please send it to friends, family, or anyone else who you think could use it.

As the video shows, the fact is that under Obama's plan, 95% of Americans -- including Joe the Plumber -- would get a tax cut. Income over $250,000 would be taxed at pre-Bush levels (same as during the Clinton years).

That's not spreading the wealth -- that's a tax plan designed to create wealth by strengthening the middle class.

Don't tell Matt Drudge or FOX News, but John McCain himself took the same basic approach to taxes as Barack Obama -- at least until the 2008 presidential campaign brought about some changes in his views.

Now, with just six days to go, the only thing John McCain has left to run on is a bogus and hypocritical attack on Barack Obama's tax cut plan. To the extent this video can help reveal that truth, getting it into enough hands could help put an end to John McCain's lies about Obama's tax cut plan.

Now this is an October surprise I can live with:

WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush dropped by the Republican National Committee headquarters unannounced to give the staff a little pep talk Tuesday amid polls showing Republicans trailing in the presidential contest and scores of key congressional races one week out from the general election. ... "He encouraged them to work hard for John McCain and keep turning out the vote until the final ballot is cast next week," White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said after the 20-minute visit.

Heckuva' job, RNC.

I haven't read all the coverage of the squabble between McCain-land and Palin-land, and I don't even care about the details, but the mere fact that there is such a tussle going on is of endless amusement to me. (You can read some of it here, here, here, here, and here.)

From a partisan point of view, the best part of it is that they still don't understand that John McCain's biggest problem is the failure of the Bush Administration and its governing philosophy.

The fact that most Republicans are more interested in assigning blame for their defeat to McCain or Palin than they are in confronting the devastating failure of the Bush presidency (and Republican congress) shows that they still have absolutely no clue what went wrong with their party -- or how to fix it.

...is to join the Democratic Party, and Faux News is more than willing to help him out!

In a new poll, Barack Obama is within two points of John McCain in Arizona. In freaking Arizona! WABC15.com reports:

With one week to go before Election Day, a new Arizona State University Cronkite/Eight Poll shows Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama statistically tied in Arizona.

The poll surveyed 1,019 registered voters in McCain's home state on October 23rd, 25th and 26th:

46 percent favored McCain
44 percent favored Obama

The poll has a sampling error of +/- 3 percent, and marks the fourth taken by ASU/KAET-TV.

The first poll showed McCain with a 13 point lead in his home state.

In subsequent polls, McCain's lead slipped to 11 points, 7 points and now 2 points.

It's probably time to send Obama (or at least Biden) to Arizona to do some campaigning with Bob Lord in AZ-03.

Thankfully, only seven more days of McCain's garbage.

Here's how it works:

Romney all but throws in the towel on McCain, asking Republican donors to help out Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader who is facing a strong challenge in Kentucky from Bruce Lunsfurd.

Guest post by barath

(Barack Obama in blue, John McCain in red. % of total dollars received classified by donor size.  Source: OpenSecrets Donor Demographics.)

Hint: it's not Barack Obama.

So it's raining in Pennsylvania and:

• Major league baseball suspends the first ever world series game
• John McCain cancels his outdoor event in Quakerstown
• About an hour away from McCain, Obama rallies in the rain

Joe Sudbay:

Okay, it's getting super nasty in the McCain/Palin campaign. Mike Allen at the Politico has the latest attack on Palin from the McCain camp:

***In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless "diva" description, calling her "a whack job."

Nasty.

I recognize that that there might not even be ten conservatives who regularly read this site, but on the chance that there are, or if you happen to know any who are persuadable, please encourage them to read Andrew Sullivan's list of the top ten reasons conservatives should cast their ballot for Barack Obama on November 4.

Update (3:40AM): Via teacherken, former GOP Senator Charles Mathias endorses Barack Obama.

Update (4:19AM): Republicans for Obama ad placed in USA Today.

It's not just John McCain -- Sarah Palin is a socialist too! Hendrik Hertzberg notes (emphasis added):

A few weeks before she was nominated for Vice-President, she told a visiting journalist--Philip Gourevitch, of this magazine--that "we're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

Using raw numbers compiled by George Mason University Professor Michael McDonald, I generated some stats on early voting trends nationwide.

According to McDonald's numbers, a bit over 12.3 million voters have already cast these ballots. About 5 million of these votes were cast in six states that report early voting turnout by party. (The states are Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Carolina.)

I added up the totals for each these states and here's what the turnout is looking like so far for early voting (in percentage terms):

• Democrats: 47.8% of early voters
• Republicans: 34.6% of early voters
• Other/No party: 17.6% of early voters

It's hard to know what to compare these numbers to, so I decided to look at the November, 2004 voter registration statistics for each state (in a couple of cases, I had to look at county-level data). Here's what I found:

• Democrats: 41.2% of 2004 registered voters
• Republicans: 35.1% of 2004 registered voters
• Other/No party: 23.7% of 2004 registered voters

Remember, these numbers are only for the six states I flagged above. And as much as I'd like to offer a thorough analaysis, I'm not enough of an expert on these numbers to get into too much detail. Nonetheless, it is clear that Democrats are overperforming their 2004 registration numbers -- and they're doing so by quite a lot.

Sam Wang's polling meta-analysis, which aims to show the current state of the race, and Nate Silver's 538 projection, which aims to predict the final outcome of the race using current data, are now both offering up the same electoral vote numbers: Obama 351, McCain 187.

Early morning viewers of FOX & Frienders were greeted with a (false) story about some radio interview Barack Obama gave in 2001. If you had been watching, here's what you would have seen on your screen:

McCain-land pimped the Drudge-FOX story (which they probably fed to Drudge in the first place). Washington Post took a look at McCain-land's claims, and here's what they came up with:

In other words, Obama says pretty much the opposite of what the McCain camp says he said. Contrary to the spin put on his remarks by McCain economics adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin, he does not express "regret" that the Supreme Court has not been more "radical." Nor does he describe the Court's refusal to take up economic redistribution questions as a "tragedy."

Another day, another lie.

Fred Barnes joins the GOP meltdown crowd and flips out on Nicole Wallace for not taking responsibility for buying Palin's expensive threads. Far be it from me to defend Wallace here, but it's not like she actually sat there and physically dressed Palin, is it? (If so, that's kind of creepy.)

The point is that Palin could have decided not to wear the $150K wardrobe. The fact that she did was her decision and her decision alone.

YouTube link

Arizona Capitol Times cites two public polls showing McCain leading 48-44 and 44-42 respectively, and a GOP internal poll showing McCain leading by just 3. All are within the margin of error, meaning Arizona is in play -- incredibly. Wouldn't it be great if McCain lost?

Screen captured at 7:12PM Pacific time Monday evening:

Bill Burton calls FOX out for its agenda-driven political programming, enraging FOX anchor Megyn Kelly. Note how calm Burton manages to remain throughout the interview. He showed no anger whatsoever...which seemed to provoke Kelly into an even deeper fury.

YouTube link

From Sarah Palin's statement on the felony conviction of Ted Stevens:

I'm confident that Senator Stevens, from this point on, will do the right thing for the state of Alaska.

What makes her "confident" that he "will do the right thing"? Weird.

Joe Lieberman vows that John McCain will live to at least 85 years of age, presumably to deflect concerns about a Palin Presidency.

Stevens' conviction will be a problem for Republicans generally, and for John McCain and Sarah Palin specifically.

In July, Palin sat next to Stevens at a press conference, talking about how much she respected him and how his voice needed to be hard across America. And during her gubernatorial campaign, she ran a television ad proudly touting his endorsement.

Here's video:

Here's the final few minutes of Barack Obama's closing argument speech in Canton, Ohio. He was outstanding:

YouTube link

McCain's new (and bogus) line of attack against Obama started with a headline on Drudge, quickly jumped to FOX News, and was quickly pushed by his own campaign.

What are the chances that McCain-land wasn't involved in getting Drudge to hype the story?

Now, apply the same thinking to the 'B' scratch hoax story. I'm not saying that McCain-land perpetrated the hoax, that would have been beyond stupid.

But it defies credulity to imagine that they weren't the ones who got Drudge -- and shortly thereafter, FOX -- to push the fake story.

I just watched the last few minutes of it; Obama ended it on a powerful note, as you might expect. I'm working on uploading an excerpt soon.

This might just be the perfect companion to John McCain's "the economy is fundamentally strong" gaffe. Sunday morning on Meet The Press, McCain told Tom Brokaw that he and George W. Bush shared a "common philosophy."

Do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course.

Now let me just ask you a simple question: at this point in the campaign, is there anything stupider that John McCain could have said about his political philosophy than to admit that he shares it with George W. Bush?

Barack Obama quickly seized on McCain's gaffe, tearing into him in both Denver and Ft. Collins. Here's a quick video montage, along with McCain's original comments:

Drudge has lost his touch. He's now going freakishly hyperbolic with a strange headline linking to a heavily edited YouTube recording (complete with trippy visuals).

The headline claims something about how Barack Obama in 2001 said it was a tragedy that the Supreme Court didn't redistribute the wealth, but (a) the clip that he links to is heavily edited, so it's hard to know what is going on in the clip; and (b) to the extent that you can make anything out, Obama actually says the exact opposite of what Drudge claims.

The original clip is here, and it's an hour long.

AP's Ben Feller reports on Obama's day in Colorado:

DENVER -- Roaring toward the finish, Barack Obama presided Sunday over two Colorado rallies that together drew about 150,000 people, a startling turnout in a key swing state.

In Denver, the city where he claimed his historic presidential nomination, Obama stepped on stage and seemed surprised at his own following. He saw an estimated crowd of more than 100,000 people -- the largest U.S. rally to date in an Obama campaign full of them.

...The location of a later rally -- a Colorado State University lawn known as "The Oval" -- suggested Obama's possible future workplace. He spoke to an estimated 45,000-50,000 people at the Fort Collins event.

And here's what I know about Obama's closing argument speech. It's scheduled for 12:30PM Eastern time, and I expect that you will be able to watch on CNN.com live as well as http://origin.barackobama.com.

To tide you over, here's excerpts from his speech:

Closing Argument Speech On The Change We Need

Monday, October 27^th, 2008, Canton, Ohio

In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

A friend of mine writes -- seriously -- with the following suggestion:

SUBJECT: Dude

You should start a new blog or accessory site called jedstate.com

To which I replied:

Guest post by barath

(Source: Washington Post Candidate Tracker.)

I know I'm late in mentioning this, but it's just hilarious that Elizabeth Hasselbeck would allege that the uproar over the "Wasilla Hockey Mom's" $150,000 shopping spree was "deliberately sexist." I mean, has she ever even heard of John Edwards $400 haircut?

But the real story is that by brining up her clothes, Sarah Palin threw John McCain under the bus in spectacular fashion. I don't think there's a political professional in America who thinks that by talking about her clothes, she was doing it to help John McCain out. The last thing he wants to talk about is how the RNC paid $150,000 to dress up his vice presidential candidate.

But that's not Palin's concern. All that matters to her is preserving her viability for 2012. And in the end, her disloyalty just underscores the epic nature of John McCain's fail on the most important decision he's faced this entire campaign: selecting a running mate.

Update: Andrew Sullivan notes that McCain's people specifically said that they did not ask Palin to make her clothes remarks.

More questions from that crazy news anchor in Florida, including some to John McCain and a hilarious one (no spoilers, but it's straight from freeperville) she asked to Biden in September:

YouTube link

YouTube link

Stanley Kurtz, one of the wingers over at The Corner, is all freaked out about the way the election is going, and he's taking it out on Ben Smith for failing to declare Barack Obama to be a homosexual foreign-born Marxo-terrorist who dates white women and carves B's into their faces while demanding that they fork over sixty hard-earned American dollars.

Although I now feel comfortable describing Kurtz's ravings as unhinged, I haven't always felt that way. In fact, up until recently, I've always assumed that he and those like him were deeply cynical hacks pursuing a flawed line of attack because they thought it would work, not because they believed it.

Increasingly, however, it seems as as though they actually are severely deranged true believers. They really do believe the garbage they are spewing. If I had any sympathy for what they are trying to accomplish, I might even feel sorry for them, because they need help.

Guest post by barath

This image is part of a new series of posts we're calling Charting Change, tracking stats about the election and the candidates. Clicking on the chart will take you to a standalone version you can embed elsewhere.

Is it just me, or has the Obama campaign perfected the art of making closing arguments? They have the best sense of timing -- in terms of building towards election day -- of any campaign that I can remember.

Anyway, that being said, Ben Smith notes that tomorrow in Canton, Ohio, Barack Obama will be making his closing argument.

I guess John McCain will be busily trying to suspend the election or someting like that.

...then you take whatever crowd you can get. At least that's what seems to have happened early today when a woman acting as if she were a Palin impersonator was standing behind McCain at a rally speech in Iowa.

Doug Elfman, a columnist for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, does a little profile of me in his blog.

McBush says he's his own man. Har, har.

Oh, did I mention: 100,000 for Barack Obama?

And this:

Alaska's natural gas pipeline was supposed to be Sarah Palin's biggest accomplishment, but it turns out that nothing has been built, it's years away from beginning -- if at all, and it's been plagued by influencing peddling...involving Sarah Palin herself, of all people.

Even though she's in third place for the 2012 nomination, it's amazing to me that 20% of Republicans still want to nominate her. They've just witnessed a campaign run by a pathological liar, and they've seen the impact of his lies on his campaign. And now 20% of them want to pick another? Just crazy.

If you're reading this post, then you're viewing TJR's newest facelift, a modest layout change designed to create a space for featuring videos and other items that would otherwise scroll off the page.

Nothing has changed with the layout of blog posts themselves, and while I'll probably tweak things a little in the featured area, the blog posts will stay exactly as they are.

If things aren't displaying properly for you, try hitting control+F5.

A brutal appraisal from a conservative Republican:

There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.

McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. "There is not a safe Republican seat in the country," he warned. "I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them."

In the Senate, things look, if possible, even worse. ... We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first.

There were dueling rallies in Albuquerque, New Mexico on Saturday:

• John McCain: Less than one thousand attendees (at least two of whom left the rally as Barack Obama supporters)
• Barack Obama: 45,000 for change.

Now those are the kind of numbers I can live with!

Saturday evening, Markos posted some amazing numbers out of Arizona: Barack Obama trails John McCain by just 4, 40-44. Among early voters who say they've already cast their ballot, Obama leads by 1, 47-46.

McCain is still favored to win the state, but in the final days of his campaign, it can't help him to have reporters asking questions like this:

Could McCain lose his home state?