Let The Bailing Begin

Over the last couple of weeks, we've seen a trickle -- about to turn into a flood -- of Republicans bailing ship on John McCain.

Each has their different reasons. The earliest to leave never really liked John McCain all that much anyway -- case in point, conservatives like George Will or Kathleen Parker. And certainly McCain's mortgage plan, which so enraged the National Review, cost him support from ideologues on the right.

But most Republicans abandoning ship just don't think John McCain will win. Their primary interest is protecting their own hide. They don't want to get blamed for defeat, and they don't want to go down with McCain. Take Bill Kristol, for example, who has been one of the biggest McCain apologists of the campaign. His unloading on McCain earlier today on FOX was all about saving his own skin. Basically, what Kristol is saying is that if McCain had used his strategy, then McCain would have had a chance.

My sense is that McCain's closing strategy is going to exacerbate the GOP flight from McCain.

In recent days, McCain has focused his time in states that seem firmly in Obama' grasp, puzzling some analysts. His strategy seems pretty straightforward, however. His bet seems to be that in order to win the election he needs two things to happen: (1) a big national swing that will take states like Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia off the map; and (2) put states like Pennsylvania and Iowa back in play.

McCain's strategy may very well give him the best chance of winning, but it also creates the best chance for an Obama landslide because unless there is a large swing in national polls -- which would be unlikely -- McCain is going to lose a lot of states like North Carolina and Florida that he would have otherwise won, even in defeat.

The problem this creates for McCain is that as it becomes increasingly obvious that he needs a miracle to win, and it becomes increasingly obvious that his current strategy is likely to produce an Obama landslide, Republicans are going to start abandoning his campaign in ever-growing numbers.

It's already turned from a trickle to a steady drip. Soon, it will be a rapid flow.