Earlier this week I posted speculative take on the political factors that may have come into play in the apparent appointment of Gov. Napolitano to be DHS Secretary.
Leaving aside the substantive reasont to appoint her to the post, the basic political issue is that by bringing her to DHS, the most likely challenger to John McCain in 2010 is now out of the equation, giving him a much easier path to re-election. (The governer had led McCain in some polls by as much as 8 points.)
My conjecture was that given the timing of Obama's meeting with McCain, the swift moves by McCain to seek re-election, and the leak one day later that Napolitano was headed for DHS, it seemed likely that Obama and McCain had reached some sort of agreement: McCain would support key elements of Obama's agenda (most likely on energy and global warming), and Obama would help clear McCain's path to staying in the Senate.
If I'm right, there's nothing nefarious about it at all. This would be a classic example of presidential politics at its best, in fact: aligning personal interests of an ambitious senator with the national interest.
In fact, one of Obama's greatest strengths -- in my view, at least -- is that I think he really understands how to aquire and exercise power. He's not always the greatest glad-hander or back-slapper, but he consistently makes good strategic decisions, and this would be one.
Now that's a long preamble to the point of this post. Let's continue with the assumption that there was some sort of an arrangement between Obama and McCain. The substantive payoffs are obvious, as long McCain keeps up his end of the bargain.
The question is, on a political level, what has Obama given up -- if anything? It turns out that Obama probably hasn't given up anything at all.
First, it's entirely possible that no matter what he was going to select Napolitano for his cabinet. If that's true, he basically got something for nothing.
Second, and more importantly, John McCain isn't Arizona's only Republican Senator -- there's also John Kyl.
John Kyl is up in 2012, and 2012 would be a perfect time for Napolitano to run for U.S. Senate, after serving 3+ years as DHS Secretary and with the support of Obama's groundgame in Arizona.
Moreover, as obnoxious a campaign as McCain ran, as horrible a President he would have been, John McCain is a better senator than John Kyl. (And not just because Sarah Palin isn't on McCain's senate staff!)
If I had the opportunity to choose who to replace, Kyl or McCain, it would be Kyl in a heartbeat. And my bet is that's exactly how things are going to play out, with the added bonus of McCain being helpful on energy and global warming issues.
© Jed Lewison