Over the past 24 hours, people have mostly focused on the tax cut elements of President-elect Obama's economic recovery plan. From a short-term political perspective, that might be a good thing, but I don't really think it's the most important aspect of his plan.
Spread over two years, the tax cuts are pretty much in line with the $131 billion in tax cuts that the 2008 stimulus plan offered. While that plan didn't turn the economy around, eliminating those tax cuts in the middle of a recession doesn't seem wise. Moreover, Obama campaigned on these tax cuts, so it's not like they are unexpected.
The only question that is really important here is whether or not the package will work. The current stimulus plan envisions $405-$465 billion for infrastructure, health care, and other projects over the next two years. Will that, combined with continuing the 2008 tax cut stimulus levels, turn this economy around?
There's a lot of focus on the number of Republican votes that this bill gets. But the number of Republican votes that this bill gets has no lasting political value.
George W. Bush won the support of half the Democratic caucus for the Iraq War Resolution. As it turns out, despite his bipartisan success, the IWR was one of the most disastrous pieces of legislation of his presidency.
The point here is that the the only real thing that matters is results. So from a political point of view, there is absolutely no reason to compromise more than necessary to get a bill passed -- not for partisan reasons, but rather because we need the best possible bill to get passed.
If the legislation passes with 62 votes and the economy grows at a healthy pace in 2011 and 2012, Obama will win an easy re-election. If the legislation passes with 85 votes and the economy gets worse, he'll have a tough road.
The point is: the best politics is also the best policy. To the extent that GOPers have good ideas, bring them on board. If $775 billion is the number this economy needs, go for it.
But if the real number is $1.15 trillion (to pick a number from thin air) and that means the bill will pass narrowly, go for the $1.15 trillion. It's not just the right thing to do, it's also the best politics.
© Jed Lewison